Economic & Labor Market Data

Economic & Labor Market Data

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Economic Forecast for 2019 for the United States by Trading Economics

Overview Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2020
GDP Growth Rate (%) 3.20 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.8 1.7
GDP Annual Growth Rate (%) 3.20 2.6 2.4 2.3 1.9 1.7
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.60 3.8 3.7 3.7 4 3.8
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 263.00 182 179 150 180 170
Inflation Rate (%) 1.90 1.8 1.7 1.9 1.8 2
Inflation Rate Mom (%) 0.40 0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.2 0.1
Interest Rate (%) 2.50 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5
Balance of Trade (USD Million) -49382.00 -49000 -56000 -60000 -55000 -62000
Current Account (USD Million) -134377.00 -123000 -131000 -134000 -129000 -125000
Current Account to GDP (%) -2.40 -2.2 -2.2 -2.2 -2.5 -2.5
Government Debt to GDP (%) 105.40 108 108 108 109 109
Government Budget (% of GDP) -3.80 -5 -5 -5 -4.8 -4.8
Business Confidence (Index Points) 52.80 55 51 53 51 52
Manufacturing PMI 52.60 52.8 51.1 51 51 50.4
Non Manufacturing PMI 55.50 54.2 56 53 52 52
Services PMI (Index Points) 53.00 53 52.4 52.2 52.1 50.8
Consumer Confidence (Index Points) 97.20 96 94 92 88 86.7
Retail Sales MoM (%) 1.60 0.4 0.3 0.3 -0.2 0.4
Building Permits (Thousand) 1288.00 1250 1240 1210 1150 1115
Corporate Tax Rate (%) 21.00 21 21 21 21 21
Personal Income Tax Rate (%) 37.00 37 37 37 35 35
Labour Actual Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2020
Unemployment Rate (%) 3.60 3.8 3.7 3.7 4 3.8
Non Farm Payrolls (Thousand) 263.00 182 179 150 180 170
Government Payrolls (Thousand) 27.00 0 13 8 10 9
Nonfarm Payrolls Private(Thousand) 236.00 178 166 142 170 161
Manufacturing Payrolls (Thousand) 4.00 1 6 15 12 -2
Initial Jobless Claims (Thousand) 230.00 209 201 209 216 238
Continuing Jobless Claims(Thousand) 1671.00 1610 1630 1650 1650 1700
ADP Employment Change(Thousand) 275.00 190 160 145 180 150
Employed Persons (Thousand) 156645.00 156950 157000 157000 157100 154000
Unemployed Persons (Thousand ) 5824.00 6200 6200 6150 6400 6280
Average Hourly Earnings (%) 0.20 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3
Average Weekly Hours (Hours) 34.40 34.5 34.5 34.4 34.5 34.4
Labor Force Participation Rate (%) 62.80 63 63 62.9 62.8 62.9
Long Term Unemployment Rate(%) 0.80 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.1
Productivity (Index Points) 106.99 107 107 107 17.3 108
Job Vacancies (Thousand) 6708.00 6730 6300 5500 5800 5200
Job Offers (Thousand) 7488.00 6700 6600 5818 5818 5800
Challenger Job Cuts (Persons) 40023.00 43000 61000 48000 65000 51000
Wages (USD/Hour) 23.31 23.58 23.82 23.97 24.08 24.93
Wages in Manufacturing (USD/Hour) 22.04 22.25 22.54 22.77 22.75 23.68
Minimum Wages (USD/Hour) 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25 7.25
Employment Cost Index (%) 0.70 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.6
Population (Million) 325.72 326 326 326 326 326
Retirement Age Men 66.00 66 66 66 66 66
Wages Low Skilled (USD/Month) 1960.00 1830 1834 2034 2031 2116
Wages High Skilled (USD/Month) 4520.00 4503 4512 4692 4683 4879
Full Time Employment (Thousand) 129778.00 130179 130449 130679 130679 131302
Living Wage Family (USD/Month) 2380.00 2361 2365 2470 2466 2569
Part Time Employment (Thousand) 26915.00 26700 26800 27000 2690 2750

 

Economic indicators show that we are at a healthy growth rate that will slow down. Another recession is most likely due another 2-3 years out. So now is the time to focus on your financial well-being and prepare for stormier skies in a few years. This means map out a solid career path and network, assuring you are providing value at work, tracking your measurable statements, and aligning your work with your drives, skills, and talents to keep you in a meaningful career. If you are working in a vulnerable industry or department that may be negatively affected by a recession sooner than later, now would be the time to begin to plan a safe haven.

Bureau of Labor Statistics Charts


Cost of Living Calculator (CNN Money)

Cost of LIving


Real GDP Growth by IMF

This interactive map is fantastic!

Global Economic InfoInternational


Economic Forecast for GDP by OECD

See interactive chart here.

GDP forecast for 2016


International Economic Forecast for GDP for 2018-2027 by Conference Board.org

GEO_Bar_chart


Careers at Risk for Automation

More information about jobs at risk for automation here at the Economist.

automation global risk automation

 

From the data below in “Which careers are most likely to be automated?” at 80,000 Hours, below, you can see where we may be heading.
Which Jobs Are Safe

Bloomberg also has a great chart below depicting the changing tides of automation here and how a college degree lowers automation risk, in this recent article, “Find Out If Your Job Will Be Automated”.

 

A college degree lowers job automation rates

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